Apple’s upcoming iPhone launch: a potential catalyst for the global mobile secondary market?

Wedbush Securities predicts a major upgrade cycle

Founded in 1955 by Edward Wedbush, Wedbush Securities is one of the largest privately held financial services firms in the United States. The firm is well-known for its in-depth equity research and investment analysis. According to Dan Ives, a leading analyst at Wedbush, the upcoming iPhone release could trigger an "upgrade cycle" that will drive significant growth for Apple over the next year.

"Our recent Asia checks are giving us more confidence this upgrade cycle will unleash a long-awaited renaissance of growth for Apple," Ives wrote in a note to investors. He believes that initial shipments of the new iPhone model, likely the iPhone 16, could exceed 90 million units. Ives goes on to speculate that if the trade-in attach rate—a measure of how many users trade in their old devices when purchasing a new one—reaches 20%, this could result in an additional 18 million used devices entering the global secondary market.

Implications for the secondary market

The potential influx of pre-owned iPhones could provide a significant boost to the global secondary market, which has been steadily growing in recent years. The recommerce market, which includes the buying and selling of used goods like smartphones, has become an increasingly important part of the consumer electronics ecosystem. The addition of millions of high-quality, used Apple iPhones could meet the growing demand for affordable, yet technologically advanced, mobile devices.

However, we need to cautious. While the numbers are promising, the market dynamics are complex. Not every device will make it to the secondary market, and factors such as condition, regional demand, and resale value will play crucial roles in determining the actual impact.

A historic upgrade cycle on the horizon?

Dan Ives further predicts that this iPhone upgrade cycle could be historic, setting the stage for what we call a "super cycle." He estimates that around 300 million Apple iPhones globally have not been upgraded in over four years, creating a large pool of potential customers ready for an upgrade. If his projections hold true, Apple could sell more than 240 million iPhone units in its fiscal year 2025, driven by AI enhancements and other innovations.