IDC: global smartphone sales forecast lowerer but secondary market grows stronger

Users hold onto phones longer

IDC expects this sluggish trend to continue over the next five years, with average annual growth hovering around 1.4%. One key reason is that consumers are increasingly retaining their devices longer, a practice encouraged by higher device durability and more software updates. Assurant came with a similar message earliers this week, stating that consumer use their phones on average around 4 year before they trade-in. Only a few years ago this was around 24-monty. Additionally, budget-conscious buyers are turning to refurbished devices, reducing the demand for new smartphones.

Tariffs and trade impact the market

The U.S.-China trade relationship continues to cast a shadow over the industry. The U.S. is forecast to grow by 1.9% in 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 3.3%. China remains a key driver, although Apple is expected to see a 1.9% decline in sales there as Huawei gains ground. Tariffs on smartphones and related components are raising concerns across supply chains and could slow primary market activity further.

Secondary market remains resilient

SecondaryMarket.news is not surprised by IDC’s recent report. The rising sales of used and refurbished smartphones reflect a strong and growing global secondary mobile market—an encouraging trend for both the industry and the environment. However, the relationship between the primary and secondary markets remains complex. As the primary market drives supply for the secondary one, a potential slowdown in new smartphone sales could eventually impact the flow of devices into the refurbished and used segments. This poses a challenge, especially for companies that rely on consistent supply. Nevertheless, one solution lies in increasing global trade-in attach rates. By encouraging more consumers to return their devices through trade-in programs, we can help stabilize secondary market supply and maintain this positive momentum.