Trade-in
28
Jan
2025
4
min read

The UK trade-in market: current trends and future projections 

According to analysis by Stuart Blackhurst at Finsur, the UK trade-in market is experiencing a major shift, driven by growing consumer demand for refurbished devices and carriers’ focus on sustainability. With 48 million smartphones in use, the market is well-positioned for expansion, though obstacles such as data transparency and infrastructure limitations persist. This article delves into the market’s current landscape, key growth drivers, and strategic considerations for industry stakeholders.

Baseline assumptions provide a foundation for market analysis

The UK smartphone market consists of 48 million devices, with 6% being refurbished, equating to 2.88 million units. Annual new device sales are estimated at 10.15 million units, with carriers accounting for 7.9 million and retailers for 2.25 million. Approximately 16% of consumers opt for refurbished devices, translating to 1.95 million units annually. The average device lifecycle is 3.5 years, creating a steady flow of trade-in opportunities.

Current market size is estimated at £ 733.7 million, with £ 117.4 million in gross margin.

Despite challenges in data availability, the UK trade-in market is valued at £ 733.7 million, based on a weighted average device price of £ 376.25. A 16% gross margin benchmark suggests £ 117.4 million in available gross margin. Carriers’ sustainability reports and consistent demand provide a reliable basis for these estimates, even as supply constraints persist.

Future value drivers include carrier targets

Key drivers of future market growth include the GSMA’s trade-in attachment rate target of 20% for carriers, increasing the refurbished device share from 6% to 16%, and extending device lifecycles from 3.5 to 5 years. Additionally, CCS Insight predicts trade-in values will rise to £470 by 2026, further incentivizing consumer participation.

Market potential shows significant growth

Under the most likely scenario, the UK trade-in market could reach £ 1.23 billion by 2030, with £ 172.2 million in gross margin. This projection assumes modest growth in the installed base, increased carrier collections, and margin compression due to competition. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the total market is estimated at 9.0%, with a 6.6% CAGR for gross margin.

Strategic implications

Carriers must double their trade-in volumes to meet GSMA targets, potentially requiring infrastructure investments. Independent traders may face increased competition, necessitating differentiation through B2B2C models or partnerships. Manufacturers, particularly Apple, must focus on trade-in programs to offset declining new device sales as refurbished market share grows.

For a more detailed analysis go to Finsur

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