According to Stuart Blackhurst’s Finsur Henry Mintzberg’s classic model of Intended, Emergent, and Realised Strategy is unexpectedly apt for the UK secondary and new smartphone industry. In a sector defined by fast product cycles and shifting consumer demand, what was once considered reactive strategy is now a rational response to structural change. Following a moderate recovery in 2024, global smartphone shipments are faltering again. Q1 2025 recorded minimal growth (0.2–3%), with Canalys noting the end of the pandemic-fuelled replacement cycle. In Europe, the rebound has faded; shipments fell by 2% in Q1 2025.
Consumer behaviour drives contraction
New UK survey data conducted via YouGov in May 2025 shows consumers plan to keep their phones longer. Average intended ownership has increased from 3.40 to 3.67 years. Critically, the number of users planning to keep a phone for more than five years rose by 9.7%, shifting from 1 in 6 to 1 in 4.
Secondary market not immune
Refurbished and used device sales are also projected to decline in the UK. Even with consumer appetite growing, longer primary ownership reduces device availability. From 2.7 million refurbished units in 2025 according to Finsur, sales may shrink to 2.5 million by 2028. This market contraction will occur despite rising consumer trust in refurbished Apple iPhones and other devices, according to Finsur.
Insurance and trade-in pressure builds
Longer lifecycles will reduce insurance policy churn and lower trade-in inventory. Devices will enter trade-in pools later and in worse condition, diminishing residual values. Samsung’s Galaxy Club is one strategic response, locking in value before depreciation accelerates.
Supply chain faces capital strain
Longer ownership cycles mean slower inventory turnover. Smaller independent retailers may face cash flow stress, while larger players might adapt through diversification or B2B pivots. Foxway’s growth in device processing and enterprise services reflects this trend.
OEMs may need to slow down
The industry’s long-held rhythm of annual or biennial launches may no longer match real consumer needs. With Apple’s services now contributing € 24.2 billion in quarterly revenue, the shift to lifetime value thinking may already be underway.
Structural or temporary trend?
Whether the trend is permanent or the result of economic uncertainty is open for debate. But even if driven by temporary caution, the implications are clear: fewer devices, slower cycles, and more emphasis on extended lifecycle value.
Market
Trade-in
Repair
Refurbishing
