New data from SellCell reveals a significant shift in smartphone resale value dynamics. While Apple iPhones have historically led the market for holding their value better than competitors, this dominance is beginning to weaken. The Apple iPhone 16 has depreciated by 35.4% just five months after its launch, a sharp increase from the 24.7% depreciation seen with the Apple iPhone 13 at the same point in its lifecycle. This 10.7-point jump highlights a clear trend: resale values of Apple devices are falling faster with each new generation. Although Apple still commands the highest resale prices across the board, the erosion of this value is accelerating year-on-year.
Samsung sees year-on-year improvement
In contrast, Samsung’s Galaxy S series is showing steady year-on-year improvement in retaining its value. The latest Galaxy S25 model has seen depreciation improve to 46.6% at the five-month mark, down from 51.9% for the S22. This 5.3-point gain suggests that Samsung’s AI-centric strategy is resonating with consumers and positively influencing second-hand pricing. If this trend continues at the same pace, projections show that Samsung may close the gap with Apple by mid 2026. The implication is significant: a brand that traditionally lagged far behind Apple in resale retention may soon compete head-to-head in one of the most valuable metrics in the smartphone market.
Google Pixel depreciation also slows
Google’s Pixel line is showing smaller, but meaningful signs of improvement in the same arena. The Pixel 9 lost 2.6 percentage points less than the Pixel 8 at ten months after launch, suggesting growing confidence in Google’s AI-first approach to hardware. While Google is still a smaller player in the secondary market compared to Apple and Samsung, these changes indicate increasing consumer acceptance of AI-powered Android devices. These gains, however incremental, underline a broader shift in the market. AI is becoming not just a feature but a factor influencing long-term value, and buyers may be adjusting their perceptions and buying decisions accordingly.
AI does not yet help Apple iPhone value
Interestingly, Apple’s implementation of AI, branded as Apple Intelligence, does not yet appear to offer a resale value advantage. The depreciation of the iPhone 16 is higher than that of the iPhone 15, suggesting that Apple’s recent AI enhancements have not translated into consumer confidence on the second-hand market. This may be due to the slow rollout of Apple Intelligence, which will not reach most devices until 2025 or later, or general consumer hesitation to embrace new AI features. For now, AI appears to be having more of a stabilising impact on Android devices than on iPhones.
5-month data suggests 2026 crossover
SellCell’s 5-month depreciation data provides a compelling snapshot of where the market is heading. Between 2021 and 2024, iPhone depreciation at five months rose steadily from 24.7% to 35.4%, increasing by an average of 3.57 percentage points per year. During a similar period, Samsung’s Galaxy S series improved from 51.9% to 46.6%, gaining back 1.77 points annually. If both trends continue linearly, Samsung is on track to meet or exceed Apple’s resale value at the five-month post-launch mark by mid 2026. This would mark a significant milestone in a secondary market long dominated by Apple.
9-month data points to 2028
To gain a longer-term perspective, SellCell also modeled 9-month depreciation data. For Apple, depreciation increased from 25.2% with the iPhone 12 to 34.7% with the iPhone 16. Samsung's projected depreciation for the Galaxy S25 is 47.7% at nine months, based on past performance and recent AI upgrades. If these modeled numbers hold true, the crossover point for resale parity could shift to early 2028. While less immediate than the 5-month projection, this still represents a notable closing of the gap. Whether Samsung overtakes Apple in resale value by 2026 or 2028, the direction is unmistakable: the secondary market is changing.
Foldables and Pixel also gain ground
Beyond the flagship Galaxy S series, Samsung’s foldable models are also showing improved value retention. At nine months, recent foldables have depreciated 2.4 percentage points less than their predecessors, suggesting stronger consumer interest and durability perceptions. Similarly, the Pixel 9’s 2.6-point year-on-year improvement adds further evidence that Android OEMs are gaining ground. While these changes are not yet enough to challenge Apple’s overall resale lead, they suggest a broadening of value across the Android ecosystem, especially among AI-integrated devices. As foldables and Pixels become more mainstream, their position in the second-hand market may continue to strengthen.
Apple remains ahead for now
Despite rising depreciation, Apple still leads the resale value race. At five months post-launch, the Apple iPhone 16 retains more value than the Galaxy S25, with an 11.2-point difference. However, that gap used to be significantly larger. What was once a 25-point gulf has nearly halved, showing that Apple’s dominance is increasingly under pressure. Consumers may begin to reevaluate their brand loyalty if Android phones not only deliver top-tier performance and features but also retain their value almost as well as Apple devices. The premium resale advantage that once set Apple apart is now less certain.
Projections could still shift
It’s important to note that these projections depend on stable market conditions. The resale value crossover between Apple and Samsung could be delayed or accelerated by factors like major product updates, pricing strategy changes, or shifts in consumer behavior. The upcoming Apple iPhone 17, for example, is rumored to feature significant hardware and storage improvements, which could boost buyer confidence and slow depreciation. On the Android side, Samsung’s continued focus on practical AI tools and long-term software support may further improve its standing. These variables will play a critical role in shaping the second-hand market in the years ahead.
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