After a turbulent first half of 2025 marked by falling refurbished smartphone prices, the third quarter brought stability. According to Dipli’s refurbished price index, values shifted minimally from 82.90 in July to 82.66 in August, before slightly recovering to 82.74 in September. This intra-quarter variation of just 0.24 points is one of the lowest recorded in recent years, confirming a significant reduction in volatility. Dipli’s data signals a broader transition: the refurbished electronics market is maturing. Seasonal triggers such as back-to-school promotions or late summer sales no longer drive sharp corrections. Instead, pricing is influenced by micro-adjustments, more efficient stock management, and better-calibrated trade-in flows.
Structural pressures in new smartphone sales
According to Counterpoint Research, global smartphone shipments for 2025 are projected to rise by only 1.9%, down from the earlier forecast of 4.2%. The downgrade reflects macroeconomic headwinds and tariff uncertainty, both limiting global demand. This slowdown has a ripple effect. With fewer new devices sold, fewer Apple iPhones and other models enter the trade-in stream, tightening supply in the refurbished market. Ordinarily, such scarcity would drive prices up, but higher refurbishment costs and a cautious, price-sensitive consumer base are keeping price movements muted.
A calibrated balance between supply and demand
The trade-in market has evolved into a stabilizing pillar for the refurbished smartphone ecosystem. Major players, including retailers, telecom operators, and refurbishers, now use smarter forecasting and inventory strategies to avoid surpluses or shortages. In Europe, stricter import controls and logistical bottlenecks are pushing companies toward domestic trade-in schemes. These local programs provide steadier and more reliable supply, reducing tariff disparities and contributing to the overall stabilization of refurbished device pricing.
European market growth slows but stabilizes
During the first half of 2025, the global refurbished smartphone market grew by 3% year-over-year. In Europe, growth was nearly flat at just 1%. Counterpoint Research attributes this to operational cost increases, tighter regulation, and uncertain U.S. trade policies. Retailers and refurbishers are now shifting from aggressive discounting to profitability-focused strategies, emphasizing certified pre-owned programs and buy-back models to build long-term resilience. Europe’s market is showing all the signs of maturity: stable prices, predictable demand, and cautious growth.
Regulation drives professionalization
Since June 2025, the EU’s extended energy label now applies to smartphones and tablets, rating them on repairability and durability. The upcoming “Right to Repair” rules, effective January 2026, will further require manufacturers to ensure spare parts availability. These measures are pushing the industry toward higher professional standards and greater transparency, benefiting structured and compliant refurbishers.
Back-to-school and the Apple iPhone 17 effect
September typically marks the start of stock preparation for Q4’s high-demand season, including Black Friday and the holidays. This pre-emptive buildup helped sustain stable pricing despite increased availability. However, early October already saw a drop in trade-in prices, largely due to the stronger-than-expected demand for the Apple iPhone 17. The resulting influx of traded Apple iPhone 14, 15, and 16 models is flooding the market, likely putting renewed pressure on refurbished prices heading into the year’s final quarter.
Market
Trade-in
Repair
Refurbishing
