Global memory prices are on track for a steep rise as AI driven demand absorbs an increasing share of DRAM and NAND supply. Manufacturers are redirecting production toward high bandwidth memory used in AI servers, leaving fewer mobile grade components available for the lower and mid-tier smartphone categories. Counterpoint now expects memory prices to rise by nearly 50% through Q2 2026, with legacy LPDDR4 the most vulnerable as factories shift to newer standards. This creates a further opportunity for the local secondary mobile market, which is expected to grow substantially.
Bangladesh market faces renewed strain
The timing is challenging for Bangladesh. Following a recovery in 2024 and relative stability in 2025, the market now risks fresh upward pressure on smartphone prices in 2026. Affordability remains a government priority as the NEIR system prepares to relaunch on 16 December, yet brands may find it increasingly difficult to keep device prices stable. Local analysts warn that Bangladesh will feel the global impact directly. The sub Tk20,000 segment, equivalent to about €142, is expected to be hit first. Memory accounts for nearly 30% of component costs in this category, and brands operating on narrow margins may have little room to absorb escalating expenses.
Evidence from global markets
Developments in other major markets underscore the risk. In India, smartphone prices have already climbed by the equivalent of €20, with further increases of roughly €70 anticipated. In China, Xiaomi has raised the price of one model by about €48. These moves show how quickly memory inflation feeds into retail pricing. Bangladesh’s smartphone market, which sells about 18 million devices annually and exceeds €2.12 billion in value, faces added complexity because more than half of its handsets enter through the grey market. This makes pricing alignment and cost control more difficult.
Local manufacturing and uncertainty
Since 2017, around 18 brands, including Xiaomi, Samsung, Oppo, Vivo and Transsion, have built manufacturing facilities in Bangladesh. These factories support jobs and provide technical expertise, but companies say the current memory shortage makes long term planning difficult. Industry insiders expect volatility to persist until at least Q3 2026. Xiaomi Bangladesh’s marketing lead notes that the rapid pace of technological change in the AI era makes forecasting particularly challenging. Despite the uncertainty, the company says it remains committed to competitive pricing.
Secondary market gains momentum
As new device prices rise, more consumers are turning to refurbished and preowned smartphones. A recent Recommerce study shows that nearly 70% of used smartphone buyers in Europe prioritise affordability. Growing price gaps between new and refurbished devices are expected to accelerate the expansion of the secondary ecosystem. Analysts believe Bangladesh could see similar growth, especially if rising memory costs make new devices less accessible. They recommend targeted support for essential components, wider availability of EMI options and stronger telco backed bundling to prevent a widening digital divide.
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