Secondary Market

The iPhone 16 series have shown impressive sales figures in both the United States and China. In the U.S., Apple captured 68% of smartphone sales in Q4 2024, up from 65% with the iPhone 15. This growth was driven by the base models, as Apple equipped all devices with the A18 chip, closing the performance gap between standard and Pro versions. In China, the Apple iPhone 16 series saw a 20% increase in early sales, with Pro models growing by 44%, highlighting the continued demand for premium devices. However, the anticipated super upgrade cycle never materialized, which affected the global secondary mobile market by reducing the expected supply.

Global market share shows mixed results

Despite regional successes, Apple’s global smartphone market share dropped by one percentage point to 18%, and Q4 iPhone sales declined by 5%. This dip is partly due to challenges in integrating Apple Intelligence, Apple's new AI-driven software, and growing competition, particularly in China. However, analysts believe this is only a temporary slowdown before AI-driven upgrades trigger a future supercycle.

The link between primary and secondary markets

A healthy primary market is essential for the secondary smartphone market. New iPhone sales drive trade-ins, ensuring a steady supply of refurbished devices. Without fresh sales, the secondary market risks a shortage of quality pre-owned iPhones, impacting availability and pricing.

AI supercycle still on the horizon

While Apple’s AI ambitions have yet to drive a significant sales spike, the company is making strategic hardware upgrades in preparation for an AI-driven future. The iPhone 16 series already feature enhanced RAM and processing power, setting the stage for more advanced Apple Intelligence capabilities. Over the next few years, these advancements will likely accelerate upgrade cycles, fueling both primary and secondary markets.

Conclusion: A temporary slowdown before AI accelerates upgrades

The iPhone 16’s performance proves that Apple remains a dominant force, even amid short-term market fluctuations. As AI integration improves, an iPhone supercycle is expected to unfold, ensuring strong sales and an active secondary market for years to come.