After two years of declines, the global primary mobile phone market returned to growth in 2024 with a 1% increase in total shipments, according to CCS Insight’s April 2025 update. This rebound was largely driven by a 3% uptick in smartphone shipments, offsetting a sharp 12% drop in feature phone volumes. Smartphones now account for 86% of total mobile phone shipments, a share expected to rise to 92% by 2029.
Smartphones will plateau after 2025
While the total market is projected to remain steady at 4 billion units through 2026, long-term growth is unlikely. CCS Insight forecasts a modest 0.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for smartphones between 2024 and 2029. After 2027, overall mobile phone shipments are expected to decline as the market matures and replacement cycles lengthen.
Used phones surge in popularity
In contrast to new devices, the secondary smartphone market is gaining significant momentum. CCS Insight projects that by 2029, one in four smartphones shipped globally will be used, totalling 413 million units. Used and refurbished Apple iPhones, in particular, are expected to play a key role in this shift, offering consumers both affordability and sustainability.
AI and foldables shape future demand
Technology innovation continues to drive niche growth. Foldable smartphone shipments are expected to climb from 21 million in 2024 to 36 million in 2029, making up 3% of the global smartphone market. AI integration is moving faster: by 2029, 80% of all smartphones are expected to be AI-enabled, growing at a CAGR of 24%.
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