Mixed signals about success Apple iPhone 16 launch: super cycle not in sight

T-Mobile US sees stronger demand for high-end models

"People are buying Pros, they’re buying Maxes, so they’re buying up the food chain, and they’re buying at a greater rate than last year," Sievert stated, pointing out that consumers are leaning towards higher-end models like the Apple iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max. Starting at US$ 999 and US$ 1,199 respectively, these models have been key drivers of demand.

While the Apple iPhone 16 lineup was unveiled on September 9, with preorders starting the same day and in-store availability beginning on September 20, Sievert's remarks suggest strong consumer interest despite analyst concerns.

Analysts question the strength of Apple iPhone 16 launch

Some industry analysts had raised doubts about the early sales of Apple’s latest smartphone. They attributed potential slowdowns to factors such as lengthening Apple iPhone upgrade cycles and a staggered launch of Apple’s much-anticipated generative artificial intelligence (AI) features. Despite the mixed signals, Sievert brushed off these concerns, asserting that T-Mobile US's sales metrics indicate robust demand.

Apple’s generative AI could extend Apple iPhone 16 sales cycle

The Apple iPhone 16 marks a significant step in Apple’s product evolution, being the first in the company’s lineup to fully integrate generative AI technology. Users will eventually be able to create texts and images through simple prompts, powered by AI capabilities. However, these features won’t be widely available until the release of iOS 18.1 in October.

According to Sievert, this delayed AI rollout could lead to a "lengthened cycle" for Apple iPhone 16 sales, as the AI features become more accessible over time. This could mean steadier, prolonged interest rather than an initial burst of demand—a sentiment echoed by industry experts who forecast that Apple is heading towards a revenue step cycle, driven by a gradual rollout of its AI capabilities.

No super cycle in sight, but steady growth expected

Historically, Apple has experienced two major super cycles, once in 2016 with the Apple iPhone 6 and again in 2021 with the Apple iPhone 12 and 13. Both cycles, according to Counterpoint, were fueled by pent-up demand for new features like larger displays or a post-pandemic portfolio refresh. In contrast, Counterpoint argues that there’s no such restrained demand for generative AI features in the current Apple iPhone cycle.

The staggered launch of Apple Intelligence features, both in terms of functionality and regional availability, suggests that Apple may not experience another super cycle, but rather a revenue step cycle that sees steady growth over time. While initial excitement around Apple’s AI push is undeniable, the full impact of these features will likely unfold gradually, especially given the lengthening smartphone upgrade periods.

Conclusion

As the Apple iPhone 16 enters the market, conflicting reports about its sales performance raise questions. However, T-Mobile’s Mike Sievert remains optimistic, stating that demand is already exceeding expectations. With the Apple iPhone 16’s generative AI features set to roll out in the coming months, Apple may see a more extended, steady growth period rather than the immediate surge that defined previous launches. We always return to the same argument: the primary market drives the secondary market. In other words, the success of new Apple iPhones directly impacts the availability of devices in the secondary mobile market, as the two are closely connected.