Global smartphone shipments are expected to increase 3.3% YoY in 2025, according to Counterpoint Research’s latest Smartphone Market Outlook Tracker. The growth is led by Apple, whose shipments have performed strongly, particularly in Q3. Counterpoint forecasts Apple will reach a global market share of 19.4% in 2025, surpassing Samsung, which is projected at 18.7%. This marks the first time Apple will lead global shipments since 2011.
Apple shipment growth drives secondary market
Apple’s dominance in the primary market has direct implications for the secondary mobile market. According to CCS Insight, Apple holds around 70% of the global secondary market, and this share is likely to grow. As more traded-in Apple devices enter circulation, the secondary market supply will expand, providing opportunities for refurbishers and resellers. The correlation between primary sales and secondary supply ensures that Apple’s market leadership benefits the broader used-device ecosystem.
Apple iPhone 17 series fuels demand
Apple exceeded expectations in Q3 2025, with Apple iPhone shipments growing 9% YoY. The iPhone 17 series introduced the iPhone Air, replacing the Plus model, and featured revised memory configurations and pricing tiers. High-frequency sales data shows early performance of the iPhone 17 series exceeded that of the iPhone 16 series in the US by 12%, in China by 18%, and in Japan by 7%, indicating strong global uptake.
Replacement cycle and market tailwinds
Analyst Yang Wang highlighted the replacement cycle as a key driver. Consumers who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 boom are entering their upgrade phase, alongside 358 million second-hand Apple iPhones sold between 2023 and Q2 2025. Additionally, reduced tariffs, the US-China trade truce, resilient economic conditions, and favorable currency trends are boosting consumer confidence, further supporting shipment growth.
Future product launches sustain growth
Apple plans to launch the iPhone 17e in H1 2026 and its first foldable iPhone by year-end, with a flip model expected in 2027. Expanding the product lineup across multiple price tiers, including the growing “e” series, positions Apple to capture rising demand, particularly in emerging markets, and strengthen its presence in the lower premium segment. Software enhancements and a 2027 design revamp will likely stimulate further upgrades.
Samsung and Chinese OEMs maintain steady growth
Samsung is projected to grow 5% in 2025, with strong A series sales in emerging markets and steady premium market performance. However, Samsung is expected to remain second globally through 2029 due to competition from Chinese OEMs. Chinese brands continue focusing on overseas markets, premium devices, and AI-enabled smartphones. Supply chain constraints, including memory shortages, may limit growth, resulting in only 1.7% YoY shipment growth for leading Chinese OEMs.
Long-term market implications
Overall, Apple’s primary market momentum will continue to drive secondary market opportunities, ensuring a robust pipeline of traded-in devices. Combined with strategic product launches and expanding global demand, Apple is positioned to lead smartphone shipments through 2029, while Samsung and Chinese OEMs maintain steady, yet secondary roles in the market.
Market
Trade-in
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Refurbishing
