Apple’s redesigned iPhone 17 and Apple iPhone Air is driving the company’s fastest smartphone growth since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to new data from carrier partners and supply-chain checks reported by the Financial Times. The device, launched in September, has exceeded early demand projections, suggesting a broader upgrade cycle is underway after two years of stagnant sales. Visible Alpha data indicates Apple’s iPhone revenue could rise by about 4% in the current fiscal year to roughly € 209 billion, with an additional 5% increase expected in 2026. These optimistic forecasts come despite ongoing challenges from AI development delays and renewed U.S.-China tariff tensions, both of which have recently weighed on Apple’s share price.
Upgrades drive replacement of older models
Analysts attribute the stronger sales to key hardware improvements in the Apple iPhone 17, including better camera performance, a brighter display, and longer battery life. These upgrades are prompting users of older Apple iPhone models to trade in their devices earlier than expected. According to Bank of America, shipping times are around 13% longer than in previous years, reflecting high consumer demand. Deepwater Asset Management added that the delays suggest a more widespread upgrade cycle than seen with the Apple iPhone 16.
Stronger orders ahead of quarterly results
Apple will report its fiscal fourth-quarter results on 30 October, with early indicators pointing to “much stronger” Apple iPhone 17 orders compared to last year’s model, according to IDC. Despite steady pricing, cost pressures and trade policy uncertainties have softened Apple’s share performance after the launch spike. Jefferies recently downgraded Apple’s stock, warning that market expectations for the new model may be overly optimistic.
Trade-in programs fuel secondary market growth
Apple’s smartphone business continues to generate more than half of its € 390 billion annual revenue, supported by global trade-in promotions and Chinese subsidies for lower-priced models. These trade-in programs are not only stimulating primary sales but are also having a ripple effect across the secondary smartphone market. Each new Apple iPhone cycle results in higher volumes of pre-owned devices entering refurbishment and resale channels.
For refurbishers, this surge is significant. The anticipated “supercycle” that analysts have long awaited, a period of exceptional iPhone demand driven by design changes and AI-enabled features, may finally be materializing. Earlier expectations that Apple’s AI integration in iOS, available for the Apple iPhone 15 and newer, would trigger such a cycle did not fully materialize. However, the combined momentum of the Apple iPhone 17 and the rumoured iPhone Air could create the conditions for a true supercycle, reinvigorating both new and secondary markets.
A potential supercycle ahead
Industry observers view 2025 as a pivotal year. Unit volumes are projected to remain near 235 million through 2026 before climbing above 240 million in 2027, possibly supported by a foldable Apple iPhone. If these projections hold, the secondary smartphone ecosystem could experience one of its most active periods in years, as higher trade-in volumes drive increased supply for refurbishers and resellers worldwide.
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Trade-in
Repair
Refurbishing
